Artificial intelligence (AI) is the most discussed technology of recent years. Advocates promise that it will help overcome productivity challenges and radically transform the economy through increased wage gains and higher economic output, among other benefits.

Productivity is a key ingredient in future economic growth and standard of living, as it offers the potential to increase output without increasing inputs—like worker hours, natural resources, and investment costs. Yet, in past waves of innovation, we have seen patterns where a technology achieves widespread adoption, without any evidence of it increasing productivity. Will this time be different?

In this study, we tackle the critical question of whether AI adoption leads to productivity improvement at the firm level. Evidence of productivity gains from AI use is mixed. There is no conclusive evidence of a strong positive or negative relationship between AI adoption and short-term productivity improvement.

The set of firms that adopted AI were already more productive than their peers, but the decision to adopt AI did not increase the rate at which their productivity grew.